We analyse the impact of macroeconomic and monetary policy shocks on corporate credit risk as measured by firms' probabilities of default (PDs) for the four largest euro area countries. We estimate the impact of shocks on one-year PDs using local projections (LP). For the period 2014-19, we find...

Fractional reserve regimes generate fragile banking, and full reserve regimes (e.g., narrow banking) remove fragility at the cost of suppressing the role of banks as lenders. A Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) could provide safe money, but at the cost of potentially disrupting bank lending....

We examine whether low interest rates foster non-viable firms in Europe by analyzing two classes of firms: zombies and distressed. Controlling for the business cycle and recession periods, we find a significantly negative effect of short-term rates on the likelihood of being a zombie, while no...

This paper gives an account of the Swedish financial crisis covering the period 1985-2000, dealing with financial deregulation and the boom in the late 1980s, the bust and the financial crisis in the early 1990s, the recovery from the crisis and the bank resolution policy adopted during the...

On 3 December EY hosted a SUERF conference on banking reform with Sir Howard Davies, the Chairman of RBS, and Dame Colette Bowe, the Chairman of the Banking Standards Board, as the two keynote speakers. Professor David Miles (Imperial College) gave the SUERF 2015 Annual Lecture on Capital and...

The paper argues that although key improvements in credit risk modelling have been made - motivated by Basel-II capital adequacy standard - yet the current turmoil in the global credit markets couldn't be forecasted and subsequently avoided. The aim of the study is to investigate the cyclical...

We develop a credit-risk model to study how information acquisition affects the liquidity in a secondary bond market. In our model, the creditors of a firm can acquire costly information about the firm and exploit the information advantage by selling their bonds to uninformed buyers. When a...

The reaction of asset markets to the announcement of monetary policy measures is regarded as crucial for the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. I test whether the cross-sections of European equities and CDS show responses to monetary shocks which are in accordance with the goals behind...

The main result of the quick reactions of the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) to the Covid-19 crisis are that more than 20% of their public debt is now held by these central banks and that the balance sheet of the ECB is now near 50% of GDP (33% for the Fed). Two...

Using unique daily data of payment defaults on suppliers in France, we show how the trade credit channel amplified the demand shock that firms met during the COVID-19 crisis. That channel dramatically increased short-term liquidity needs during the first months of the pandemic. A one standard...