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In this paper, we study the evolution of inflation expectations for two key emerging economies, Brazil and Turkey, using a reduced form model in a state-space framework, where the level of inflation is modeled explicitly. We match the survey-based inflation expectations and inflation targets set...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010337610
The real interest rate gap or IRG -the gap between the short term real interest rate and its "natural" level-, is a theoretical concept that has attracted much attention in central banks in recent years. This paper aims at clarifying its practical relevance for monetary policy in real time. For...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004998811
relative to other predictors generally improving in the post-2012 period. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise indicates that …, when monetary and credit aggregates are loaded directly in the forecasting equation, the additional gains over the … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637074
Using the Consensus Economics dataset with individual expert forecasts from G7 countries we investigate determinants of disagreement (crosssectional dispersion of forecasts) about six key economic indicators. Disagreement about real variables (GDP, consumption, investment and unemployment) has a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425866
results of the model's forecasting performance suggest that this model can be a useful analytical tool in the process of … to MAKPAM and enriches the set of tools for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in NBRM. In this paper we highlight …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011926820
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010394237
as nonparametric and semiparametric models in forecasting the nominal interest rate setting that describes the South …:01 to 2004:12, we compare the out-of-sample forecasting ability of the models over the period 2005:01 to 2008:12. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008513007
This paper investigates the changing behavior of inflation expectations in response to the macroeconomic and policy environment. Using a panel of professional forecasters covering thirteen years of inflation targeting period from Turkey, we present evidence on the behavioral shifts in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012628450
factors predominantly drive core goods price changes. When comparing forecasting performance, we find that both the aggregate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012977854
We introduce machine learning in the context of central banking and policy analyses. Our aim is to give an overview broad enough to allow the reader to place machine learning within the wider range of statistical modelling and computational analyses, and provide an idea of its scope and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948433