In impulse response analysis estimation uncertainty is typically displayed by constructing bands around estimated impulse response functions. These bands may be based on frequentist or Bayesian methods. If they are based on the joint distribution in the Bayesian framework or the joint asymptotic...

The author previously developed a numerical multivariate path-integral algorithm, PATHINT, which has been applied to several classical physics systems, including statistical mechanics of neocortical interactions, options in financial markets, and other nonlinear systems including chaotic...

In this paper, we perform an in - depth investigation of relative merits of two adaptive learning algorithms with constant gain, Recursive Least Squares (RLS) and Stochastic Gradient (SG), using the Phelps model of monetary policy as a testing ground. The behavior of the two learning algorithms...

The economic crisis triggered by the COVID–19 pandemic once again raises doubts about the eurozone's ability to deal with joint economic problems given its dissimilar dynamics and asymmetries. This chapter contributes to a paradigm shift in the governance of the euro area towards a more...

For an economy characterized by neo-Keynesian wage rigidity, an optimal open market rule is derived based on financial market information, including auction price behavior. Simulations of a small model of the United States--estimated via full information maximum likelihood together with a...

We consider a framework featuring a central bank, private and financial agents as well as a financial market. The central bank's objective is to maximize a functional, which measures the classical trade-off between output and inflation plus income from the sales of inflation linked calls minus...

Despite often-abundant natural resources, so-called “Indian Country” suffers the worst systemic poverty in North America today. Much of the economic story of Indian Country is one of hopelessly limited property rights naively designed to protect its wards. Whether encumbrances on fee simple...

This paper explores the implications of time varying volatility for optimal monetary policy and the measurement of welfare costs. We show how macro-economic models with linear and quadratic state dependence in their variance structure can be used for the analysis of optimal policy within the...

The purpose of this paper is to show how to solve linear dynamic rational expectations models with anticipated shocks by using the generalized Schur decomposition method. Furthermore, we determine the optimal unrestricted and restricted policy responses to anticipated shocks. We demonstrate our...

This paper attempts to characterise an anti-inflationary monetary targeting (MT) regime. In order to derive a formal representation of this regime, we formulate the central bank’s optimisation problem under the assumption that it is possible for the monetary targeted variable to have an impact...