the forecast bias. In contrast to the existing literature, we use forecasts submitted by individual FOMC members to …

then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those …

model, and a Bayesian model averaged forecast from a suite of univariate time-series models commonly taught to first … ahead. However, by the one-year forecast horizon, typically at least one of our forecasting benchmarks performs as well as …

's view to forecast FOMC forecasts. Specifically, monetary policy is forward looking and, in its pursuit of transparency, it …

This paper evaluates inflation forecasts made by Norges Bank which is recognized as a successful forecast targeting … superiority of the Bank's forecast cannot be asserted, when compared with genuine ex-ante real time forecasts from an independent … whole sample, which includes a change in the mean of inflation. -- Inflation forecasts ; monetary policy ; forecast …