In this paper we systematically evaluate how central banks respond to inflation deviations from target. We present a stylized New Keynesian model in which agents' inflation expectations are sensitive to inflation deviations from target. To (re-)establish credibility, optimal monetary policy...

This paper investigates how and to what extent nonlinearity, including the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate, affects the estimates of the natural rate of interest in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and wages. We find that the estimated natural rate...

Revised September 2016. In this paper, I use a statistical model to combine various surveys to produce a term structure of inflation expectations--inflation expectations at any horizon--and an associated term structure of real interest rates. Inflation expectations extracted from this model...

In this paper I study the effects of monetary policy on economic activity and asset prices in Sweden, separately identifying the effects of a conventional policy change from effects of new information about economic fundamentals. Recent research has shown that high-frequency changes in policy...

The recent surge in consumer prices beginning in 2021 has been attributed by government officials to supply chain disruptions, war in Ukraine, the coronavirus pandemic, and corporate greed. Between 2008Q4 and 2021Q1 the consumer price index (CPI) increased 32 percent from about 211 to 280....

This paper examines the effect of changes in Federal Reserve assets and consumer prices during the stewardship of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Since his appointment in February 2018 until July 2022, the average monthly increase in consumer prices was 0.31 percent—more than 2.4 times...

This paper applies a recently developed method (Inoue and Rossi, 2021) to estimate functional inflation expectations and ex-ante real interest rate shocks, and then examines their macroeconomic effects in the context of a Functional Vector Autoregressive model with exogenous variables...

In this paper we systematically evaluate how central banks respond to deviations from the inflation target. We present a stylized New Keynesian model in which agents' inflation expectations are sensitive to deviations from the inflation target. To (re-) establish credibility, monetary policy...

In this paper we investigate the impact of the recent US unemployment benefits extension on the labor market dynamic when the nominal interest rate is held at the zero lower bound (ZLB). Using a New Keynesian model, our quantitative experiments suggest that, in contrast to the existing...

Many explanations for the decline in real interest rates over the last 30 years point to the role that population aging or rising income inequality plays in increasing the long-run aggregate demand for assets. Notwithstanding the importance of such factors, the starting point of this paper is to...