The outcome of the referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union in June 2016 was largely unanticipated by politicians and pundits alike. Even after the "Leave" vote, the uncertainty surrounding the withdrawal process might have affected the UK economy. We draw on an official list of...

We use a Bayesian time-varying parameters structural VAR with stochastic volatility for GDP deflator inflation, real GDP growth, a 3-month nominal rate, and the rate of growth of M4 to investigate the underlying causes of the Great Moderation in the United Kingdom. Our evidence points towards a...