In this paper, we derive a modification of a forward-looking Taylor rule, which integrates two variables measuring the uncertainty of inflation and GDP growth forecasts into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model. We show that certainty-equivalence in New Keynesian models is a consequence of...

Despite major recent advance in the literature on financial crises, the key role of central banks in the dynamics of financial crises are still not well understood. Our aim is to contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of financial crises by explicitly modeling the strategic options...

Stabilizing the exchange rate is a major monetary policy goal in a number of Mediterranean countries. We present a microstructure model of the foreign exchange market based on technical trading that allows us to categorize de facto exchange rate regimes and to derive a market based measure of...