Showing 1 - 10 of 22,065
Followers of law, politics and business commonly relate stories of individuals who appear to predict an expected self-performance level below what they believe likely. Candidates, attorneys and firms sometimes seem to under-predict their own capacities. Insofar as individuals typically construct...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014047090
shows that agents' learning and the dynamics of the economy are heavily affected by central bank transparency about its … policy rule. A central bank that does not communicate its rule can induce 'learning equilibria' in which the economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010283511
Survey data on inflation expectations show that: (i) private sector forecasts and central bank forecasts are not fully aligned and (ii) private sector forecasters disagree about inflation expectations. To reconcile these two facts we introduce dispersed information in a New Keynesian model,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011520661
The interaction between monetary and fiscal policy and the associated uncertainty about this interaction have been put on center stage by the recent financial crisis and the associated recession. In our model agents learn about both fiscal and monetary policy rules via the Kalman Filter. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491162
What happens when fiscal and/or monetary policy changes systematically? We construct a DSGE model in which agents have to estimate fiscal and monetary policy rules and assess how uncertainty surrounding the conduct of policymakers influences transition paths after policy changes. We find that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011292321
learning, choosing among a set of alternative forecasting models. The analysis is accompanied by empirical evidence on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636284
information is subject to multiplier effects inherent to social learning. We build upon the static case, where all agents receive … dissemination of public information is thus considerably lower than the static case suggests. If the social learning signal is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373562
We develop a theoretical framework for studying the effects of interaction on the quaJity of decision-making by monetary policy committees. We show that interaction, i.e. increasing one's expertise through an exchange of views, is most likely not to result in interdependent voting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334835
information is subject to multipliereffects inherent to social learning. We build upon the static case, where all agents receive a … dissemination of public information is thus considerably lower than the static case suggests. If the social learning signal is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349468
We study the impact of adaptive learning for the design of a robust monetary policy using a small open-economy New … with model misspecification. Learning induces an intertemporal trade-off for the central bank, i.e., stabilizing inflation … possibility to conduct robust monetary policy is limited in a small open economy under learning for any exchange rate pass …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012292350