The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … MAKPAM model and exogenous determinants, such as output gap, world commodity prices, and foreign effective inflation. The … inflation forecast, with relatively good fit of equations for food and domestic oil prices. This model serves as satellite model …

tests for forecast rationality show that a necessary condition for good forecast performance is satisfied both for Greenbook … and private forecasts, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Tests for forecast accuracy and the …). The relative forecast performance is, however, not robust in the presence of large macroeconomic shocks such as the Great …