Berger, Helge; Ehrmann, Michael; Fratzscher, Marcel - 2008
The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US … FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the best and worstperformers across the sample. This heterogeneity is … anticipating important events such as monetary policy decisions. Moreover, the paper shows that such heterogeneity is economically …