In order to identify structural shocks that affect economic variables, restrictions need to be imposed on the parameters of structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. Economic theory is the primary source of such restrictions. However, only over-identifying restrictions can be tested with...

Does the effect of monetary policy depend on the prevailing level of inflation? In order to answer this question, we construct a parsimonious nonlinear time series model that allows for inflation regimes. We find that the effects of monetary policy are markedly different when year-over-year...

Since January 1999, according to the law, the common monetary policy for all the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) Member States should be decided by simple majority in the Governing Council (GC) of the European Central Bank (ECB), regarding the Euro area aggregate conditions. Notwithstanding,...

The short article is focused on four issues associated with challenges in estimating and forecasting economic trends during financial crises: difficulties in forecasting the eruption of a large-scaled financial crisis, evaluation of some high-frequency modeling techniques, comparison of two...