China's monetary policy is unconventional and constantly evolving as a result of its rapid economic development. This paper proposes to use fore-cast combinations to predict the People's Bank of China's monetary policy stance with a large set of 73 macroeconomic and financial predictors covering...

This paper analyses a macro-financial VAR model for the euro area that includes -- apart from conventional measures of output, inflation and monetary policy -- a composite indicator of systemic financial stress, namely the CISS index, and total assets of the ECB balance sheet capturing the...

We build upon a Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector Autoregression (MSBVAR) model to study how the credit default swaps market in the euro area becomes an important chain in the propagation of shocks through the entire financial system. The study sheds light on the regime-dependent...

This paper exploits the term structures of treasury yields to extract information about macroeconomic dynamics during the effective lower bound period (ELB). I introduce a new no-arbitrage macro-finance affine model jointly representing stochastic inflation trend and volatilitywith a short-term...

This paper proposes a new econometric approach to disentangle two distinct response patterns of the yield curve to monetary policy announcements. Based on cojumps in intraday tick-data of a short and long term interest rate, we develop a day-wise test that detects the occurrence of a significant...

We tackle two questions in this paper: In the sovereign debt crisis, what moves the euro area inflation outlook and has the firm anchoring of medium to long-term inflation expectations been touched? Deriving densities from a new data set on options on the euro area harmonized index of consumer...

Policy impact studies often suffer from endogeneity problems. Consider the case of the European Central Bank (ECB) Securities Markets Programme: If Eurosystem interventions were triggered by sudden and strong price deteriorations, looking at daily price changes may bias downward the correlation...

In order to provide greater transparency in their opinions and decisions, central banks around the world use both their official channels and the specialized media to communicate with the general public. Using an unique news dataset with intraday frequency, this paper finds evidence that the...

I show that a congruent, parsimonious, encompassing model discovered using David Hendry's econometric modelling approach and Autometrics can overcome the many inadequacies of the typical static models of US Treasury returns regressed on macroeconomic announcements. The typical specification...

This study examines the effect of bank-specific and macroeconomic key determinants of Islamic retail banks profitability in Bahrain. It used panel data of six Islamic retail banks from 2013 to 2019, and it employed an explanatory research with secondary financial data. Return on Assets (ROA) and...