I estimate a medium-scale New-Keynesian model and relax the conventional assumption that the central bank adopted an active monetary policy by pursuing inflation and output stability over the entire post-war period. Even after accounting for a rich structure, I find that monetary policy was...

In this paper, we estimate trend inflation in Sweden using an unobserved components stochastic volatility model. Using data from 1995Q4 to 2021Q4 and Bayesian estimation methods, we find that trend inflation has been well-anchored during the period - although in general at a level below the...

This paper estimates a New Keynesian model with trend inflation and contrasts Taylor rules featuring fixed versus time-varying inflation target while allowing for passive monetary policy. The estimation is conducted over the Great Inflation and the Great Moderation periods. Time-varying...

We estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model for the Euro area under alternative descriptions of monetary policy (discretion, commitment or a simple rule) after allowing for Markov switching in policy-maker preferences and shock volatilities. This reveals that there have been several changes in...

Using a small-scale microfounded DSGE model with Markov switching in shock variances and policy parameters, we show that the data-preferred description of US monetary policy is a time consistent targeting rule with a marked increase in conservatism after the 1970s. However, the Fed lost its...

In this paper we use the functional vector autoregression (VAR) framework of Chang, Chen, and Schorfheide (2024) to study the effects of monetary policy shocks (conventional and informational) on the cross-sectional distribution of U.S. earnings (from the Current Population Survey), consumption,...

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which the policy rate signals the central bank's view about macroeconomic developments to price setters. The model is estimated with likelihood methods on a U.S. data set that includes the Survey of Professional Forecasters as a measure of price...

Exchange market pressure (EMP) measures the pressure on a currencyto depreciate. It adds to the actual depreciation a weightedcombination of policy instruments used to ward off depreciation,such as interest rates and foreign exchange interventions, where theweights are their effectiveness. The...

This paper addresses the relative importance of monetary indicators for forecasting inflation in the euro area in a Bayesian framework. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) based on predictive likelihoods provides a framework that allows for the estimation of inclusion probabilities of a particular...

Have the macroeconomic effects of QE programs been overestimated empirically? Using a large set of model specifications that differ in the degree of time-variation in parameters, the answer is yes. Our forecasting exercise suggests that it is crucial to allow for time-variation in parameters,...