This chapter reviews developments in GDP over the past several decades. The analysis shows that accumulation of labor and capital explains the bulk of overall output growth since 1990, with changes in total factor productivity playing only a minor role. Moreover, while increases in total factor...

This Selected Issues paper on the Republic of Poland constructs a financial conditions index for Poland to explore the link between financial conditions and real economic activity. Measures to contain the fiscal deficit in the aftermath of the global financial crisis led to a reduction in the...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes pace of economic growth for Brazil. Moderating activity and stubbornly elevated inflation since 2010 have led to a reevaluation of Brazil’s long-term potential growth rate. Growth accounting suggests that potential growth is probably lower than was...

GDP growth is likely to remain strong, although narrowly driven by a mining investment boom, increasing the economy’s vulnerability to terms of trade shocks. Outside the mining sector, growth is expected to be slow with still weak consumer confidence and a strong exchange rate weighing on...

Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV consultation, prepared by a staff team of the IMF, following discussions that ended on October 2, with the officials of Croatia on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was...

This Selected Issues paper estimates both Guatemala’s potential output and output gap using a wide range of econometric techniques. The analysis suggests that Guatemala’s potential output growth is about 3.5 percent for the whole sample period and that the output gap is almost...

The main purpose of this paper is to construct a financial conditions index (FCI) for South Africa. The analysis extracts the index by applying two alternative approaches (principal component analysis and Kalman filter), which identify an unobservable common factor from a group of external and...

Ethiopia pursues a public sector-led growth strategy that focuses on promoting growth through high public investment supported partly by low nominal interest rates. While the strategy has contributed to robust economic growth in the past, recent developments indicate a buildup of vulnerabilities...

This paper discusses a request from Congo for the Rapid-Access Component of the Exogenous Shocks Facility. Performance on the 2008 staff-monitored program was mixed, complicated by the effects of the exogenous shock. Although weaknesses remain, the authorities strengthened public financial...

Poland’s economy has recovered well in 2010–11, reflecting strong economic fundamentals and decisive countercyclical policies. Poland’s strong trade and financial links to Europe continue to make it vulnerable to potential shocks from the region. Despite the difficult...