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I analyze how the tone of central bank press conferences impacts risk premia in the currency market. I measure tone as the difference between the number of hawkish and dovish phrases made during a press conference. I show that central bank tone contemporaneously explains option implied risk...
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A large number of measures for monitoring risk and uncertainty surrounding macroeconomic and financial outcomes have been proposed in the literature, and these measures are frequently used by market participants, policy makers, and researchers in their analyses. However, risk and uncertainty...
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target rates from the OIS prices to predict the outcome of monetary policy meetings around the world. In the US, a randomly … zukünftigen Zielzinssätze aus den OIS-Preisen, um das Ergebnis der geldpolitischen Gremien auf der ganzen Welt vorherzusagen. In …
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objectives. First, it provides a theory of currency risk premia based on a weak and plausible form of fiscal non …
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