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How Big is the Toolbox of a Central Banker? Managing Expectations with Policy-Rate Forecasts : Evidence from Sweden
Åhl, Magnus - 2018
than half of the surprise and decreasing with the forecast horizon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012933576
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Credibility of central banks inflation forecasts
Tura-Gawron, Karolina - 2016 - This version 19/02/2016
published by the central banks of England, Sweden and Norway. The article presents the proposition of an inflation forecast … of inflation forecast targeting (IFT), inflation forecasts play a crucial role in the instrument rate decision … forecasts, the similarity of the forecasts and the inflation forecast deviations from the inflation target. The credibility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011802291
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The Effects of Forward Guidance : What Do We Learn from Staff Forecasts and Survey-Based Expectations?
Dunne, Peter G. - 2015
The path of the policy interest rate expected by financial markets was shifted by the ECB's forward guidance of July 2013. This provides tentative evidence that market expectations had, in advance of the forward guidance, diverged from a path that would have been consistent with the ECB's normal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013025147
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Disciplining expectations and the forward guidance puzzle
Müller, Tobias; Christoffel, Kai; Mazelis, Falk; … - 2020
improves the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of the model. Furthermore, we evaluate the case for introducing a discount factor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241110
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Measuring Disagreement in UK Consumer and Central Bank Inflation Forecasts
Moessner, Richhild - 2014
We provide a new perspective on disagreement in inflation expectations by examining the full probability distributions of UK consumer inflation forecasts based on an adaptive bootstrap multimodality test. Furthermore, we compare the inflation forecasts of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013067922
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Assessing central bank commitment to inflation targeting : evidence from financial market expectations in India
Garga, Vaishali; Lakdawala, Aeimit; Sengupta, Rajeswari - 2022 - This version: October 2022
We propose a novel framework to gauge the credibility of central banks' commitment to an inflation-targeting regime. Our framework combines survey data on macroeconomic forecasts with high-frequency financial market data to understand how inflation targeting makes economic agents change their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013468210
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Fed Speak on Main Street : Central Bank Communication and Household Expectations
Binder, Carola - 2017
Central banks emphasize the use of communication as a tool of monetary policy. As central banks increasingly recognize that low public informedness limits their ability to communicate with the general public, several have begun to explicitly tailor their communication strategies for a broader...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012969118
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Are Survey Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Central Bank Communication and News
Dräger, Lena - 2015
, as it improves the forecast accuracy. Furthermore, consistency is time varying. Exploring this time variation, we provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013021981
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Monetary policy announcements and expectations : evidence from German firms
Enders, Zeno; Hünnekes, Franziska; Müller, Gernot J. - 2019
We assess empirically whether monetary policy announcements impact firm expectations. Two features of our data set are key. First, we rely on a survey of production and price expectations of German firms, that is, expectations of actual price setters. Second, we observe the day on which firms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012159806
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Can more public information raise uncertainty? : the international evidence on forward guidance
Ehrmann, Michael; Gaballo, Gaetano; Hoffmann, Peter; … - 2019
Central banks have used different types of forward guidance, where the forward guidance horizon is related to a state contingency, a calendar date or left open-ended. This paper reports cross-country evidence on the impact of these different types of forward guidance on the sensitivity of bond...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011997441