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A Bayesian infinite hidden Markov vector autoregressive model
Nibbering, Didier; Paap, Richard; Wel, Michel van der - 2016
We propose a Bayesian infinite hidden Markov model to estimate time- varying parameters in a vector autoregressive model. The Markov structure allows for heterogeneity over time while accounting for state-persistence. By modelling the transition distribution as a Dirichlet process mixture model,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011569148
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Euro area real-time density forecasting with financial or labor market frictions
McAdam, Peter; Warne, Anders - 2018
We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813503
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Modern forecasting models in action : improving macroeconomic analyses at central banks
Adolfson, Malin; Andersson, Michael K.; Lindé, Jesper; … - 2006 - Revised version
practice using data from Sweden. We compare the forecast performance of BVAR and DSGE models with the Riksbank's official, more … paper we demonstrate how BVAR and DSGE models can be used to shed light on questions that policy makers deal with in …- and judgment based forecasts, and show that the combined forecast performs well out-of-sample. In addition, we show the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011585648
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Bayesian vector autoregressions
Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia; Ricco, Giovanni - 2018
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011925887
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Monetary policy in a small open economy model : a DSGE-VAR approach for Switzerland
Bäurle, Gregor; Menz, Tobias - 2008
We study the transmission of monetary shocks and monetary policy with a behavioral model, corrected for potential misspecification using the DSGE-VAR framework elaborated by DelNegro and Schorfheide (2004). In particular, we investigate if the central bank should react to movements in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003882303
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Atypical behavior of credit : evidence from a monetary VAR
Afanasyeva, Elena - 2013 - First Version: September 30, 2011, this Version: April 14, 2013
Credit boom detection methodologies (such as threshold method) lack robustness as they are based on univariate detrending analysis and resort to ratios of credit to real activity. I propose a quantitative indicator to detect atypical behavior of credit from a multivariate system - a monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010400368
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BEMGIE : Belgian Economy in a Macro General and International Equilibrium model
De Walque, Gregory; Lejeune, Thomas; Rannenberg, Ansgar; … - 2023
This paper outlines the three-country New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model of the National Bank of Belgium. The model is named BEMGIE for Belgian Economy in a Macro General and International Equilibrium model. It features imperfect market competition, standard real and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014233574
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Effects of monetary policy shocks on UK regional activity : a constrained MFVAR approach
Mandalinci, Zeyyad - 2015
This paper examines the effects of monetary policy shocks on UK regional economic growth and dispersion in a novel Constrained Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregressive framework. Compared to a standard MFVAR, the model partially accounts for missing quarterly observations for regional growth by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372798
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Signaling effects of monetary policy
Melosi, Leonardo - 2016
We develop a dynamic general equilibrium model in which the policy rate signals the central bank's view about macroeconomic developments to price setters. The model is estimated with likelihood methods on a U.S. data set that includes the Survey of Professional Forecasters as a measure of price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011559878
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Active, or passive? : revisiting the role of fiscal policy in the great inflation
Ettmeier, Stephanie; Kriwoluzky, Alexander - 2020
We reexamine whether pre-Volcker U.S. fiscal policy was active or passive. To do so, we estimate a DSGE model with monetary and fiscal policy interactions employing a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm (SMC) for posterior evaluation. Unlike existing studies, we do not have to treat each policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012223616