We introduce a methodology for measuring default risk connectedness that is based on an out-of-sample variance decomposition of model forecast errors. The out-of-sample nature of the procedure leads to "realized" measures which, in practice, respond more quickly to crisis occurrences than those...

Intro -- Contents -- Foreword -- Glossary -- 1 Introduction -- 2 A Primer on Systemic Risk -- 3 Systemic Risk: A Theoretical Framework -- 4 The Buildup of Financial Imbalances -- 5 Contagion -- 6 Systemic Risk and the Real Costs of FinancialCrises -- 7 Measuring Systemic Risk -- 8 Systemic Risk...

This paper empirically investigates the transmission of systemic risk across the Euro Area by employing a Global VAR model. We find that a union aggregate systemic risk shock results in a sharp decline in output, with two thirds of the response to be attributed to cross-country spillovers. The...