We evaluate the performance of inflation forecasts based on the open-economy Phillips curve by exploiting the spatial … pattern of international propagation of inflation. We model these spatial linkages using global inflation and either domestic … slack or oil price fluctuations, motivated by a novel interpretation of the forecasting implications of the workhorse open …

The Phillips curve, which posits a relationship between inflation and domestic economic activity, introduces a crucial … evidence that forecasts of U.S. inflation from Phillips curve-based models tend to underperform relative to naïve forecasts. We … aspects of the Great Moderation have improved the forecast accuracy of open-economy models. …

money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating … limits. The marginal contribution of money to forecasting accuracy is often small, money adds little to dynamic factor models …

money in forecasting euro-area inflation. We compare the predictive performance within and among various classes of … contains relevant information for inflation in some model classes. Money-based New Keynesian DSGE models and VARs incorporating …

-economy Phillips curves under standard measures of global slack do not help forecast domestic inflation, possibly indicating …-2015:Q1 period and appear to be reliable proxies for global slack in forecasting inflation. …We investigate empirically the inflation dynamics in New Zealand, a small open economy and a pioneer in inflation …