results of the model's forecasting performance suggest that this model can be a useful analytical tool in the process of … to MAKPAM and enriches the set of tools for forecasting and monetary policy analysis in NBRM. In this paper we highlight …

relative to other predictors generally improving in the post-2012 period. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise indicates that …, when monetary and credit aggregates are loaded directly in the forecasting equation, the additional gains over the … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …

Failures are not rare in economic forecasting, probably due to the high incidence of shocks and regime shifts in the …

1929 and 1933. Doubts surrounding GDP estimates for the 1920s would call into question conventional VAR techniques. We … few factors and inserting these into a monetary policy VAR. We work in a Bayesian framework and apply MCMC methods to …