The paper shows that there is a substantial degree of heterogeneity in the ability of Fed watchers to forecast US monetary policy decisions. Based on a novel database for 268 professional forecasters since 1999, the average forecast error of FOMC decisions varies 5 to 10 basis points between the...

The engineer economist -- The failure of postwar reconstruction -- Rueff and French economic strategy during the Depression -- The crisis of liberalism and the future of liberal capitalism in the 1930s -- L'ordre social and the war -- Reconstruction and inflation -- Keynes, the postwar "age of...