The argument that policy risk, i.e., uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic … business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New Keynesian model featuring policy risk as well as uncertainty about … technology. We directly measure uncertainty from aggregate time series and find considerable evidence of time-varying policy risk …

An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper … discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single …