-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds … extensions improve the density forecasts of real GDP and inflation and their joint forecasts up to an eight-quarter horizon. We … find that adding financial frictions leads to a deterioration in the forecasts, with the exception of longer-term inflation …

are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features … of the model, we evaluate the accuracy of real-time inflation forecasts from different model specifications. The version … that forecasts inflation best implies that after the 2011 sovereign debt crisis the output gap in the euro area has been …

This paper analyzes the performance of central banks in 27 inflation targeting countries by examining their success in … achieving their explicit inflation targets. For this purpose, we decompose the inflation gap, the difference between actual … inflation and inflation target, into predictable and unpredictable components. We argue that the central banks are successful if …

applied to quarterly and monthly US inflation in an empirical study. We find that the persistence of quarterly inflation has … and density forecasts for monthly US inflation …

level - for predicting inflation in India. Using quarterly data on manufacturing inflation from 1982 to 2007, we find that … the real money gap is a significant predictor of inflation in india. Our results show that this variable is a better … predictor of future inflation at quarterly horizon than the deviation of broad money growth from its target for the whole sample …

inflation, we examine models of inflation that do and do not use the output gap. The Phillips curve, which relates inflation to … real activity, is regarded as the maintained theory of inflation. Models of inflation without the output gap include the … paper examines ten different models of inflation and estimates sixty-seven different specifications, some of which …

examines the usefulness of these estimates for inflation forecasting. Over this period, we find that the Federal Reserve … estimation techniques. In contrast to previous work, we also find no deterioration in forecast performance when inflation …

In this paper, we study the fit and the predictive performance of the Phillips curve for euro area inflation with … regard to different inflation series, time periods and predictor variables, notably different global factors. We compare the … prices, global consumer inflation, global economic slack and foreign demand. We find that traditional global indicators such …

breaks in the performance of most simple Phillips curves. Euro area inflation was particularly hard to forecast in the run … practitioners, we find that: (i) the key type of time variation to consider is an inflation trend; (ii) a simple filter-based output …

find a higher average forecast accuracy of models that incorporate information on inflation expectations from the ECB’s SPF … inflation expectations are typically not large but significant in some periods. Both short- and long-term expectations provide … (not always for the countries). The analysis is undertaken for headline inflation and inflation excluding energy and food …