We employ a threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) methodology in order to examine the nonlinear nature of the interactions among credit market conditions, monetary policy, and economic activity. We depart from the existing literature on the subject along two dimensions. First, we focus on a...

We evaluate the performance of inflation forecasts based on the open-economy Phillips curve by exploiting the spatial pattern of international propagation of inflation. We model these spatial linkages using global inflation and either domestic slack or oil price fluctuations, motivated by a...

The Phillips curve, which posits a relationship between inflation and domestic economic activity, introduces a crucial trade-off between real and nominal objectives for the central bank. Atkeson and Ohanian (2001), among others, present evidence that forecasts of U.S. inflation from Phillips...