We extend the work done in our “Redux” paper from Oct 2011 to find a weighted composite U.S coincident economic index (CEI) that includes non-zero weightings from all 50 states and when used in a standard Probit model, produces a perfect correlation (R2 of 1) to NBER recession dating. We...

The main focus of the present paper is to analyze the impacts of financial policy on inflation rates. The analysis depended on time series data and was divided into theoretical and applied analytical framework. An econometric model was utilized to reflect the relations between financial policy...

Many observers argue that the world has changed after the latest financial crisis. If that is the case, monetary policy and the process informing it will have to be reconsidered and 'learned' anew by all stakeholders. Perhaps, a new Taylor rule will emerge. A 'Taylor rule' is predicated upon two...

This paper examines the causal relationship between financial openness and financial stability in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) from 1993 to 2011. We use two indicators of financial openness: the de jure financial openness and the de facto financial openness. We propose a...

Olonite 2/3.5 Rule (O2/3.5R) is a selection rule employed to reduce the stress of researchers who are to sample a large population while maintaining the optimal selection from the large population. Using a three sampling/selection techniques, the result showed that the Olonite 2/3.5 Rule gives a...

This paper applies data science techniques, specifically natural language processing algorithms, to a corpus comprised of the Bank of England’s MPC minutes. Whilst acknowledging that there is a considerable amount of fuzziness surrounding the use of such techniques, there is some evidence to...

The macro risk premium measures the threshold return for real activity that receives funding from savers. We base our argument in this paper on the relationship between the macro risk premium and the growth of financial intermediaries' balance sheets. The spare capacity of their balance sheets...

In responding to the severity and broad scope of the financial crisis that began in 2007, the Federal Reserve has made aggressive use of both traditional monetary policy instruments and innovative tools in an effort to provide liquidity. In this paper, I examine the Fed’s actions in light of...

Sentiment analysis is applied to the Federal Reserve's documents relating to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). A new method of rating the sentiment of texts is developed through the creation of a 100 000 word sentiment dictionary, and is used to estimate the sentiment of the Beige Book...