estimation-based. We conduct several simulations comparing the accuracy of the initial estimates provided by these methods and … how they affect the accuracy of other estimated model parameters. We find evidence against their joint estimation with … attenuated by penalizing the variance of estimation errors. Even so, the joint estimation of learning initials with other model …

% of consumers form theory-consistent expectations with respect to all three concepts. For the Taylor Rule and the Phillips …. Evaluating determinants of consistency, we provide evidence that the likelihood of having theory-consistent expectations with … with theory-consistent expectations have lower absolute inflation forecast errors and are closer to professionals …

% consistent with the Taylor rule and 34% are in line with the Phillips curve. However, only 6% of consumers form theory … target. Finally, consumers with theory-consistent expectations have lower absolute ination forecast errors and are closer to …