Alternative modeling strategies for specifying subset VAR models are considered. It is shown that under certain conditions a testing procedure based on t-ratios is equivalent to sequentially eliminating lags that lead to the largest improvement in a prespecified model selection criterion. A...

This paper develops a multivariate regime switching monetary policy model for the US economy. To exploit a large dataset we use a factor-augmented VAR with discrete regime shifts, capturing distinct business cycle phases. The transition probabilities are modelled as time-varying, depending on a...

The experience of the Asian currency and financial crisis in the years 1997-8 encouraged economists to develop some open economy nonlinear macro models. Such models allow for nonlinearities – studying the effects of contractionary currency devaluation in contrast to the standard model of...