This paper presents an equilibrium model that provides a rational explanation for two features of data that have been considered puzzling: The positive relation between US dividend yields and nominal interest rates, often called the Fed-model, and the time-varying correlation of US stock and...

The paper investigates the effect of monetary policy uncertainty on stock market volatility. Higher monetary uncertainty leads to lower stock market volatility both in sample and out of sample. Monetary policy uncertainty matters more for the volatility of big firms, profitable firms and past...

The monetary policy shocks have been widely regarded to have effects on the financial markets. Before the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve adjusted the federal funds target rate to implement the monetary policy. This paper uses event studies to examine the relationship between the...

We analyze the period before the zero lower bound and show that the state of investor sentiment strongly affects the transmission of monetary policy to the stock market. The impact of Federal funds rate (FFR) surprises is mostly potent when sentiment-driven overvaluation is followed by a...

This paper documents that the ex-ante level of the corporate bond market distress is a good predictor for the pre-FOMC announcement return, subsuming the relevant information of equity market uncertainty highlighted by the previous literature. We compute the orthogonal components of distress and...

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) conducts an unconventional monetary policy that includes exchange-traded fund (ETF) purchases, which can be expected to affect aggregate equity indices. As equity ETF purchases represent a unique and exceptional monetary policy framework, there are few studies on how such...

Discount rates affect stock prices directly via the discount-rate channel or indirectly via the cash-flow channel because expected future cash-flow growth varies with the discount rates. The traditional Macaulay duration captures the effect from the discount-rate channel. I propose a novel...

We find that the FOMC-announcement-day return premium earned by a firm is positively related to the increase in its ex ante, option-implied skewness prior to the announcement. This finding is consistent with: (1) the existence of an announcement-day Fed put that is partially anticipated by the...

We show that uncertainty of monetary policy (MPU) commands a risk premium in the US Treasury bond market. Using the news based MPU measure in Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016) to capture monetary policy uncertainty, we find that MPU forecasts significantly and positively future monthly Treasury...

This paper aims to investigate the impact of uncertainty on the predictive power of term spread and its components for future stock market returns and economic activity in Korea and the USA. This paper finds that the stock market’s expected excess return and growth of economic activity are...