Showing 1 - 10 of 21,862
This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636332
This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook …. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation … long-horizons. Overall, the NKPC is a useful tool for monitoring euro area inflation outlook. Thanks to its fast and light …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012622377
patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the normal regime, oil price shocks … followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the same … direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a potential …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011771984
patterns in economic activity and inflation following oil price shocks in the euro area. In the 'normal regime', oil price … shocks are followed by sizeable and sustained macroeconomic fluctuations, with inflation and economic activity moving in the … same direction as the oil price. The responses of inflation expectations and wage growth point to second-round effects as a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011709632
monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963628
monetary and credit aggregates are very often selected among the top predictors of inflation, with their predictive power … and credit variables in forecasting inflation, even if their information content is diluted in a much broader pool of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011637074
(underpredict) inflation at intermediate forecast horizons when inflation is below (above) target. The magnitude of the bias is …We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic … quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012544414
(underpredict) inflation at intermediate forecast horizons when inflation is below (above) target. The magnitude of the bias is …We test for bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation forecasts using a confidential dataset of ECB macroeconomic … quarterly projections. We investigate whether the properties of the forecasts depend on the level of inflation, by …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012508654
We test for state-dependent bias in the European Central Bank's inflation projections. We show that the ECB tends to … underpredict when the observed inflation rate at the time of forecasting is higher than an estimated threshold of 1.8%. The bias is … most pronounced at intermediate forecasting horizons. This suggests that inflation is projected to revert towards the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014532443
The purpose of the paper is to introduce the framework for decomposing the forecast of headline inflation, obtained by … inflation forecast, with relatively good fit of equations for food and domestic oil prices. This model serves as satellite model … core inflation. The model for inflation decomposition is a small structural model, set up in state space framework. Kalman …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011926820