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Disciplining expectations and the forward guidance puzzle
Müller, Tobias; Christoffel, Kai; Mazelis, Falk; … - 2020
improves the out-of-sample forecast accuracy of the model. Furthermore, we evaluate the case for introducing a discount factor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012241110
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Assessing the uncertainty in central banks' inflation outlooks
Knüppel, Malte; Schultefrankenfeld, Guido - 2019
Recent research has found that macroeconomic survey forecasts of uncertainty exhibit several deficiencies, such as horizon-dependent biases and lower accuracy than simple unconditional uncertainty forecasts. We examine the inflation uncertainty forecasts from the Bank of England, the Banco...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011962843
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Does My Model Predict a Forward Guidance Puzzle?
Gibbs, Christopher - 2020
We provide sufficient conditions for when a rational expectations structural model predicts bounded responses of endogenous variables to forward guidance announcements. The conditions coincide with a special case of the well-known (E)xpectation-stability conditions that govern when agents can...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012827118
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FOMC Announcements and Predictable Returns
Velikov, Mihail - 2017
I document that the high market returns and good performance of the CAPM associated with FOMC meetings are concentrated on meetings with unanticipated cuts to the Fed funds target rate. Moreover, stocks that perform poorly around meetings with surprise cuts subsequently outperform the market....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972379
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Bailout Uncertainty in a Microfounded General Equilibrium Model of the Financial System
Cukierman, Alex - 2011
This paper develops a micro-founded general equilibrium model of the financial system composed of ultimate borrowers, ultimate lenders and financial intermediaries. The model is used to investigate the impact of uncertainty about the likelihood of governmental bailouts on leverage, interest...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013122330
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Inflation forecasts and monetary policy
Bernanke, Ben; Woodford, Michael - 1997
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10000640284
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Predictability of future economic growth and the credibility of monetary regimes in Germany, 1870 - 2003
Baltzer, Markus; Kling, Gerhard - In: Applied economics letters 14 (2007) 4/6, pp. 401-404
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003469400
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Forecast uncertainty and the taylor rule
Bauer, Christian; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2015
standard deviation of individual forecasts around the median Consensus Forecast as proxy for forecast uncertainty. Our sample … react significantly to inflation forecast uncertainty by reducing their policy rates in times of higher inflation … forecast uncertainty. We conclude with some implications for optimal monetary policy rules and central bank watchers. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010512077
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Do central bank forecasts matter for professional forecasters?
Kotłowski, Jacek - In: Finance a úvěr 65 (2015) 6, pp. 432-454
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011415746
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Interest rate forecasts in times of financial crisis : what might be interesting to know?
Kunze, Frederik; Kramer, Jens; Rudschuck, Norman - In: European journal of political economy 34 (2014), pp. 45-52
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011283954