bank's own interest rate expectations. From a theoretical point of view, the latter should yield the highest forecast …

to i) forecast horizon; ii) whether the individual is a Federal Reserve Bank president, governor, and/or Vice Chairman …

's view to forecast FOMC forecasts. Specifically, monetary policy is forward looking and, in its pursuit of transparency, it …

tests for forecast rationality show that a necessary condition for good forecast performance is satisfied both for Greenbook … and private forecasts, as measured by the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). Tests for forecast accuracy and the …). The relative forecast performance is, however, not robust in the presence of large macroeconomic shocks such as the Great …

then provide a forecast evaluation for GDP growth and CPI inflation since 1982: we compare the staff forecasts with those …

country- and variable-specific effects of central bank transparency on forecast accuracy and their dispersion among a large … set of professional forecasts of financial and macroeconomic variables. More communication even increases forecast errors …

standard deviation of individual forecasts around the median Consensus Forecast as proxy for forecast uncertainty. Our sample … react significantly to inflation forecast uncertainty by reducing their policy rates in times of higher inflation … forecast uncertainty. We conclude with some implications for optimal monetary policy rules and central bank watchers. …