Showing 1 - 10 of 7,505
The degree of an economy's monetization, which has an important implication on economic growth, can be affected by the conduct of monetary policy, financial sector reform, and episodes of financial crises. The paper finds that monetization -- measured by the ratio of broad money to nominal GDP...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013102201
The Central Bank of Morocco has been working on developing a Forecasting and Policy Analysis System (FPAS) to support a gradual move toward a more flexible exchange rate regime and the eventual adoption of a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime. At the center of the FPAS is a quarterly...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012925237
This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013152415
An error correction model (ECM) is used to study the properties of money demand and to evaluate the appropriate monetary policy in PNG. The study confirms that the determinants of money demand are real GDP, nominal interest and inflation rate. The income elasticity of money demand is very low....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012964634
We shed light on the demand for a central bank digital currency (CBDC) as a means of payment, based on survey payment data. We provide a quantitative framework to assess transactional demand for CBDC at the point of sale, accommodating a wide range of design choices. We develop a structural...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014526662
This paper provides a how-to guide to model-based forecasting and monetary policy analysis. It describes a simple structural model, along the lines of those in use in a number of central banks. This workhorse model consists of an aggregate demand (or IS) curve, a price-setting (or Phillips)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012780166
The lack of developed financial markets and well-functioning transmission channels assigns monetary aggregates in emerging economies the potential role of nominal anchor, intermediate target, or informational variable for monetary policy. The effectiveness of this approach relies crucially on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013219425
Using Swiss data from 1983 to 2008, this paper investigates whether growth rates of the different measures of the quantity of money and or excess money can be used to forecast inflation. After a preliminary data analysis, money demand relations are specified, estimated and tested. Then,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013095154
In this chapter we discuss model selection and predictive accuracy tests in the context of parameter and model uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. We begin by summarizing some recent theoretical findings, with particular emphasis on the construction of valid bootstrap...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014052483
In this chapter we discuss model selection and predictive accuracy tests in the context of parameter and model uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. We begin by summarizing some recent theoretical findings, with particular emphasis on the construction of valid bootstrap...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130740