The transcript of a panel discussion marking the fiftieth anniversary of John Muth's "Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements" (Econometrica 1961). The panel consists of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace. The discussion is moderated by...

This paper studies optimal monetary policy under rational inattention: the policy maker optimally chooses her information subject to a processing constraint. Our analytical results emphasize how the policy maker’s information choices shape her expectations and the dynamics of the macroeconomy....

We show what the rational inattention model predicts about the treatment effect of information provided during a randomized control trial. This is a non-trivial question because the model implies optimal attention choice before, during, and after an information treatment. The predictions of the...

This article considers the empirical record of the 1942-1951 period of Federal Reserve history when the Fed was more politically accountable and more independent of private financial interests. During the 1940s, federal spending was nearly twice as high as today, and federal borrowing was more...

Humans act based on the ideas they adopt and apply to circumstance with the intensity of action derived from the associated emotions. It follows that in any society the presentation of the ideas to citizens a major driver of citizen opinion and hence a major driver of social development. After...

The main focus of the present paper is to analyze the impacts of financial policy on inflation rates. The analysis depended on time series data and was divided into theoretical and applied analytical framework. An econometric model was utilized to reflect the relations between financial policy...

We introduce Behavioral Learning Equilibria (BLE) into a multivariate linear framework and apply it to New Keynesian DSGE models. In a BLE, boundedly rational agents use simple, but optimal AR(1) forecasting rules whose parameters are consistent with the observed sample mean and autocorrelation...