Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds....

With bond yields at all-time lows after the Fed's quantitative easing drove real interest rates to the zero-bound and even briefly below it, investors have allocated ever more money to equities. Lacking alternatives, the stock market has grown flush from yield-hungry buyers. But now the mood is...