This paper provides a general strategy for analyzing monetary policy in real time which accounts for data uncertainty without explicitly modelling the revision process. The strategy makes use of all the data available from a real-time data matrix and averages model estimates across all data...

This paper contributes to the debate of whether central banks can \lean against the wind" of emerging stock or house price bubbles. Against this background, the paper evaluates if new advances in real-time bubble detection, as brought forward by Phillips et al. (2011), can timely detect bubble...

We employ a money-based early warning model in order to analyse the risk of a low inflation regime in the euro area, Japan and the US. The model specification allows for three different inflation regimes: Low, Medium and High inflation, while state transition probabilities vary over time as a...

Most macroeconomic data is continuously revised as additional information becomes available. We suggest that revisions of data is an important source of uncertainty about the state of the economy. This paper evaluates the quality of major real macroeconomic Euro area variables, published by...

We propose a classical approach to estimate factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) models with time variation in the factor loadings, in the factor dynamics, and in the variance-covariance matrix of innovations. When the time-varying FAVAR is estimated using a large quarterly dataset of...

I propose a methodology for estimating forward-looking Taylor rules in real time when forward-looking real-time central bank data is unavailable. The methodology consists of choosing appropriate models to closely replicate U.S. Greenbook forecasts, and then applying these models to Canada,...

We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a...

In this paper, we examine the ability of Fisher effect to describe the subjective behaviour of monetary policy responses for nations constrained by global factors. We developed and estimated a simple DSGE model for appraising the consequence of an integrated financial market predictor on...