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This paper is part of a dialogue with Blair Fix on how inflation redistributes income between creditors and workers and the way in which monetary policy affects this process. In his 2023 paper, 'Inflation! The Battle Between Creditors and Workers', Fix shows, first, that the impact of U.S....
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We develop and apply a procedure to test the welfare implications of a beauty and non-beauty contest based on survey forecasts of interest rates and yields in a large country sample over an extended period of time. In most countries, interest rate forecasts are unbiased and consistent with both...
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We build a model for bond yields based on a small-scale representation of an economy with secular declines in inflation … bond yields via the term premium. …
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depend on the type and nature of the surprise and change over time. Decomposing bond yields into expected short-term interest … rates and the term premium reveals that both signalling and portfolio rebalancing effects explain the responses of bond … important to Swiss government bond yields than Swiss stock prices …
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