Many commentators have argued that if the Federal Reserve had followed a stricter monetary policy earlier this decade when the housing bubble was forming, and if Congress had not deregulated banking but had imposed tighter financial standards, the housing boom and bust - and the subsequent...

Central banks repo market operations and liquidity infusions occasion a structural liquidity mismatch in bank balance sheets and increase the dependence on central bank liquidity. This paper argues for what I term “Circular Monetary Economics”, an approach to monetary policy that seeks to...

Since Barnett derived the user cost price of money, the economic theory of monetary services aggregation has been developed and extended into a field of its own with solid foundations in microeconomic theory. Divisia monetary aggregates have repeatedly been shown to be strictly preferable to...

The paper examines a wide variety of models forecasting inflation, consumer survey, professional survey, judgmental, market-derived, and monetary model. Despite differences between forecasting approaches, models produced generally similar results. Long-term forecasts were more accurate than...

Two extraordinary inflation surprises of the last generation were the longstanding inflation shortfall from central bank targets and now the pandemic inflationary.Inflation shortfalls can be attributed to characteristics of monetary systems represented by a model with increasing inelasticity,...

In this paper, we develop a structural model to estimate the current level of the natural rate for a small open economy, featuring a rich set of shocks to provide economic intuition for its underlying drivers. The model follows the New Keynesian tradition with several frictions and is able to...

The launch of the euro has fed doubts concerning the constitution of an optimal European monetary zone. Indeed, the differences in legal, institutional and cultural frameworks… as well as the diversity of the productive and financial European systems may have led to the idea that Europe does...

Negative interest rates were once seen as impossible outside the realm of economic theory. However, several central banks have recently adopted negative policy rates. The Federal Reserve is coming under increasing pressure to follow suit in the wake of the coronavirus crisis. This paper...

We evaluate the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into euro area (EA) inflation by estimating an open economy New Keynesian model with Bayesian methods. In the model ERPT is incomplete because of local currency pricing and distribution services, with the latter allowing to distinguish between...

In this paper we develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model for an open economy, and estimate it on Euro area data using Bayesian estimation techniques. The model incorporates several open economy features, as well as a number of nominal and real frictions that have proven to...