Adequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper suggests a new econometric approach for jointly determining inflation forecasts and monetary policy stances, particularly where seasonal fluctuations of economic activity and prices...

Inflation expectations estimates are among the most important indicators used, in particular when implementing the Taylor rule. These estimates include primarily (1) break even inflation for the next 12 months, calculated from the prices of CPI (Consumer Price Index)-indexed and unindexed...