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The New Keynesian model with rational expectations unrealistically predicts that unanticipated credible changes in the inflation target lead to an immediate jump in the inflation level while the output gap is unaffected. We set up a theoretical model where agents learn the behaviour of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014065326
information is subject to multiplier effects inherent to social learning. We build upon the static case, where all agents receive … dissemination of public information is thus considerably lower than the static case suggests. If the social learning signal is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011373562
information is subject to multipliereffects inherent to social learning. We build upon the static case, where all agents receive a … dissemination of public information is thus considerably lower than the static case suggests. If the social learning signal is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349468
The interaction between monetary and fiscal policy and the associated uncertainty about this interaction have been put on center stage by the recent financial crisis and the associated recession. In our model agents learn about both fiscal and monetary policy rules via the Kalman Filter. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010491162
learning, choosing among a set of alternative forecasting models. The analysis is accompanied by empirical evidence on the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011636284
We study the general problem of information design for a policymaker—a central bank—that communicates its private information (the ``state") to the public. We show that it is optimal for the policymaker to partition the state space into a finite number of ``clusters” and to communicate to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012181571
How do financial markets acquire information about upcoming monetary policy decisions, beyond their reaction to central bank signals? This paper hypothesises that sharing information among investors can improve expectations, especially in the presence of disagreement or uncertainty about the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013547894
This paper investigates the performances of an inflation targeting regime in a learning economy whose functioning is … Simon (1971) [Simon, H., The Theory of Problem Solving, in 'IFIP Congress (1)', 1971, pp. 261-277]. Instead of assuming that …, we assume that their behaviour is guided by simple rules of thumb – or heuristics – while a continuous learning process …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013048357
infinite-horizon learning, and subjective expectations with Euler-equation learning. Under rational expectations, the model … necessitates of large, possibly unrealistically so, degrees of myopia. The same result persists under infinite-horizon learning …, given that agents are still remarkably far-sighted. But, under Euler-equation learning, the model can fit the data with only …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012509319
We develop a dynamic learning model to study money adoption. Agents own an asset that can potentially serve as money … distribution of dividends and based on the learning outcomes they coordinate to adopt the asset as money or to abandon it. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012830503