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: (i) monetary volatility negatively affects long-run growth; (ii) the relation between nominal volatility and growth … increases the negative effect of nominal volatility on mean growth. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010343890
The argument that policy risk, i.e., uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic recovery in the U.S. during the Great Recession has a large popular appeal. We analyze the role of policy risk in explaining business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009772961
This paper studies a dynamic general equilibrium model with sticky prices and rational expectations in an environment of low interest rates and deflationary pressures. We show that small changes in the public's beliefs about the future inflation target of the government can lead to large swings...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012746836
The argument that policy risk, i.e. uncertainty about monetary and fiscal policy, has been holding back the economic recovery in the U.S. during the Great Recession has a large popular appeal. We analyze the role of policy risk in explaining business cycle fluctuations by using an estimated New...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009126071
function of the monetary policy stance. As a result, a more hawkish monetary policy reduces the volatility and persistence of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015069687
Expectations play a central role in modern macroeconomics. The econometric learning approach, in line with the cognitive consistency principle, models agents as forming expectations by estimating and updating subjective forecasting models in real time. This approach provides a stability test for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014183715
This paper studies the volatility implications of anticipated cost-push shocks (i.e. news shocks) in a New Keynesian …), anticipated cost-push shocks lead to a higher (lower) volatility in the output gap and in the central bank’s loss than an … unanticipated shock of the same size. The inversion of the volatility effects of news shocks between rational and boundedly rational …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011390502
In this paper we investigate the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with heterogenous agents and a stylized banking sector. We show that frictions in credit supply amplify the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009761866
Is monetary policy less effective at stimulating investment during periods of elevated volatility (when all firms … elevated volatility leads to a decrease in extensive margin investment incentive so that nominal stimulus generates less … aggregate investment. To do this, I first document empirically that high volatility weakens firms' investment responses to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012840814
We introduce frictional financial intermediation into a HANK model. Households are subject to idiosyncratic and aggregate risk and smooth consumption through savings and consumer loans intermediated by banks. The banking friction introduces an endogenous countercyclical spread between the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012705511