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We document large, longer-term, joint regime shifts in asset valuations and the real federal funds rate-r* spread. To interpret these findings, we estimate a novel macro-finance model of monetary transmission and find that the documented regimes coincide with shifts in the parameters of a policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013234115
using inflation-induced equity market volatility (EMV) to better account for bond price determinants. The regression model …, a GED-GARCH (1,1) procedure, is adopted to deal with the volatility clustering and fat tail features in bond return … the domestic market (expect in Japan). This study introduces the equity market volatility arising from inflation or the …
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We document strong U.S. stock and bond return predictability from several macroeconomic volatility series before 1982 … policy and shocks with time-varying volatility. The decline is consistent with changes in both policy and shock dynamics …. While an increase in the response to inflation in the interest-rate policy rule decreases volatility, more persistent and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011709322
This paper contributes to the debate of whether central banks can \lean against the wind" of emerging stock or house price bubbles. Against this background, the paper evaluates if new advances in real-time bubble detection, as brought forward by Phillips et al. (2011), can timely detect bubble...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011300629
The nature of the relation between stock returns and the three monetary variables of interest rates (bond yields), inflation and money supply growth, while oft studied, is one that remains unclear. We argue that the nature of the relation changes over time, and this variation is largely driven...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012813273
implicit volatility by a decrease in the interest rate. We take our results as strong evidence that central banks use interest …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010202818