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Some variables are more worthy than others : new diffusion index evidence on the monitoring of key economic indicators
Armah, Nii Ayi; Swanson, Norman R. - 2011
; factor ; federal reserve bank ; forecast ; macroeconometrics ; monetary policy ; parameter estimation error ; proxy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130538
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Some Variables are More Worthy than Others : New Diffusion Index Evidence on the Monitoring of Key Economic Indicators
Armah, Nii Ayi C. - 2013
Central banks regularly monitor select financial and macroeconomic variables in order to obtain early indication of the impact of monetary policies. This practice is discussed on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York website, for example, where one particular set of macroeconomic “indicators”...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013092865
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Predictive inference under model misspecification with an application to assessing the marginal predictive content of money for output
Armah, Nii Ayi; Swanson, Norman R. - 2011 - Rev.
uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. We begin by summarizing some recent theoretical findings, with … particular emphasis on the construction of valid bootstrap procedures for calculating the impact of parameter estimation error …). -- block bootstrap ; forecasting ; recursive estimation scheme ; rolling estimation scheme ; model misspecification ; nonlinear …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009130740
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Predictive Inference Under Model Misspecification with an Application to Assessing the Marginal Predictive Content of Money for Output
Armah, Nii Ayi C.; Swanson, Norman R. - 2007
uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. We begin by summarizing some recent theoretical findings, with … particular emphasis on the construction of valid bootstrap procedures for calculating the impact of parameter estimation error …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014052483
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A Bayesian infinite hidden Markov vector autoregressive model
Nibbering, Didier; Paap, Richard; Wel, Michel van der - 2016
We propose a Bayesian infinite hidden Markov model to estimate time- varying parameters in a vector autoregressive model. The Markov structure allows for heterogeneity over time while accounting for state-persistence. By modelling the transition distribution as a Dirichlet process mixture model,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011569148
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Central bank policy rates : are they cointegrated?
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Carcel, Hector; Gil-Alaña, … - 2017
This paper analyses the stochastic properties of and the bilateral linkages between the central bank policy rates of the US, the Eurozone, Australia, Canada, Japan and the UK using fractional integration and cointegration techniques respectively. The univariate analysis suggests a high degree of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619595
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Central bank policy rates : are they cointegrated?
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Carcel, Hector; Gil-Alaña, … - 2017
This paper analyses the stochastic properties of and the bilateral linkages between the central bank policy rates of the US, the Eurozone, Australia, Canada, Japan and the UK using fractional integration and cointegration techniques respectively. The univariate analysis suggests a high degree of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011619627
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The time-varying relation between stock returns and monetary variables
McMillan, David G. - In: Journal of risk and financial management : JRFM 15 (2022) 1, pp. 1-17
The nature of the relation between stock returns and the three monetary variables of interest rates (bond yields), inflation and money supply growth, while oft studied, is one that remains unclear. We argue that the nature of the relation changes over time, and this variation is largely driven...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012813273
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Inflation targeting and inflation expectations : evidence for Brazil and Turkey
Altuğ, Sumru; Çakmaklı, Cem - 2014
In this paper, we study the evolution of inflation expectations for two key emerging economies, Brazil and Turkey, using a reduced form model in a state-space framework, where the level of inflation is modeled explicitly. We match the survey-based inflation expectations and inflation targets set...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010337610
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Predictive inference under model misspecification with an application to assessing the marginal predictive content of money for output
Armah, Nii Ayi (contributor); Swanson, Norman R. (contributor) - 2006
uncertainty under recursive and rolling estimation schemes. We begin by summarizing some recent theoretical findings, with … particular emphasis on the construction of valid bootstrap procedures for calculating the impact of parameter estimation error on …-sample estimation periods are ended any time during the 1980s, but less evidence during the 1970s. Furthermore, recursive estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003698518