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inflation risk. We calculate the term structure of inflation uncertainty in New Keynesian models when the monetary authority … achieves equilibria with substantially lower long-run inflation risk. With either sticky prices or sticky wages, a price path … target reduces the variance of inflation by an order of magnitude more than it increases the variability of the output gap …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012731748
We theoretically explore long-run stagnation at the zero lower bound in a representative agent framework. We analytically compare expectations-driven stagnation to a secular stagnation episode and find contrasting policy implications for changes in government spending, supply shocks and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012004630
Do extreme events have a significant effect about textual sentiment? The purpose of this article is to highlight the need to correct the estimation of indicators of economic uncertainty. The indicators were constructed from textual data about the perspective of extreme events. For this purpose,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014281527
consumption via managing inflation expectations based on the Euler equation. Unconventional fiscal policy uses trivial … announcements of future consumer-price increases to boost inflation expectations and consumption expenditure on impact. Instead … inflation expectations and spending today. We find households' inflation expectations and readiness to spend react substantially …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012057290
We study asymmetric inflation effects of both conventional and unconventional monetary policy in the euro area during …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014231034
We examine how the interaction between monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions affects inflation uncertainty in the … long-term. The unobservable inflation uncertainty is quantified by means of the slowly evolving long-term variance component … of inflation in the framework of the Spline-GARCH model (Engle and Rangel, 2008). For a cross-section of 13 developed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010425581
This paper studies the behaviors of uncertainty through the lens of several popular models of expectation formation. The full-information rational expectations model (FIRE) predicts that both the ex ante uncertainty and the variance of ex post forecast errors are equal to the conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014475397
equilibrium exists. We study the response differences in the dynamics of the inflation rate to changes in the mean and variance of … the Great Recession, in which the effects of greater model uncertainty may have played a role in keeping inflation rates …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013031084
below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than … anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 … find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s but has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012936771
-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation,for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013002151