This study examines the dynamics of the Russian currency against the US dollar, exploring its responses to geopolitical risk, domestic policies, and oil and gas price shocks. Based on our quantile and time-frequency analyses from January 1998 to July 2022, focused on a subsample that covers the...

Este artículo introduce una nueva clase de modelos de vectores autorregresivos con parámetros cambiantes en el tiempo (TVP-VAR). En los modelos propuestos, se permite que las innovaciones estructurales puedan influir en la dinámica de sus coeficientes. También se proporciona un algoritmo de...

This paper analyzes both the cross-sectional and time variation in aggregate monetary policy transmission from nominal short term interest rates to price level. Using Bayesian TVP-VARs where the structural interest rate shocks are identified by sign restrictions, we show that monetary policy...

Interaction of fiscal and monetary policy is crucial for macroeconomic stability, especially for an economy with downward pressure as well as a tightened space for macro policy, like China. In this paper, we use a time-varying-parameter (TVP-VAR) model to study Chinese fiscal-monetary...

As an important indicator for the central banks that adopting inflation targeting regime, this paper aims to construct a monetary conditions index (MCI) for Turkey based on the weighted sum approach covering the period of 1986:05-2018:10. As a novelty time-varying parameter vector autoregressive...

Central bank credibility is critical for the effectiveness of monetary policy. The measures of credibility that are based on the changes in actual inflation rate do not perform very well in environments of chronic inflation. We design an alternative measure that allows us to track the evolution...