This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models...

This paper investigates how the ordering of variables affects properties of the time-varying covariance matrix in the Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model.It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are imposed whenthe ratio of volatilities is time-varying....

This paper investigates how the ordering of variables affects properties of the time-varying covariance matrix in the Cholesky multivariate stochastic volatility model. It establishes that systematically different dynamic restrictions are imposed when the ratio of volatilities is time-varying....

We study for a benchmark small open emerging economy an optimal robust monetary policy à la Hansen and Sargent (2003) considering additive model uncertainty. The robust control approach supposes that economic agents are not able to assign probabilities to a set of all plausible models and...

The choice of monetary policy is the most important concern of central banks. However, this choice is always confronted, inter alia, with two relevant aspects of economic policy: parameter instability and model uncertainty. This paper deals with both types of uncertainty using a very specific...

In this paper we formalize the uncertainty about the persistence of cost-push shocks using an open economy optimal control model with Markov regime-switching and robust control. The latter is used in only one of the regimes producing relatively more persistent cost-push shocks in that regime....

This paper explores the role that the imperfect knowledge of the structure of the economy plays in the uncertainty surrounding the effects of rule-based monetary policy on unemployment dynamics in the euro area and the US. We employ a Bayesian model averaging procedure on a wide range of models...

Using a macroeconomic model with asset prices, we analyze how optimal monetary policy, and macroeconomic dynamics and performance are affected by the central bank’s desire to be robust against model misspecifications. Considering the worst-case model, we show that an increase in the central...

Asset prices are a valuable source of information about financial market participants.expectations about key macroeconomic variables. However, the presence of time-varying risk premia requires an adjustment of market prices to obtain the market’s rational assessment of future price and policy...