How forward guidance influences expectations is not yet fully understood. To study this issue, I construct central bank data that includes forward guidance and its attributes, central bank projections, and quantitative easing, which I combine with survey data. I find that, in response to a...

This paper estimates the effects of unconventional monetary policies on consumer as well as asset price inflation, economic activity and bank lending at the hand of a VAR analysis, covering episodes of balance sheet policies of 9 countries over the last 20 years. While recent episodes of...

The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower...

The secular decline in the equilibrium real interest rate observed over the past decades has materially limited the room for policy-rate reductions in recessions, and has led to a marked increase in the incidence of episodes where policy rates are likely to be at, or near, the effective lower...

In this paper, we analyse nominal exchange rate and price dynamics after risk shocks with short-term interest rates constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB). We show with a stylized theoretical model that temporary risk shocks may lead to permanent shifts of the exchange rate and the price...

The term structure of inflation forecasts disagreement in the US can be summarized by two components: disagreement about the trend inflation, and disagreement about the cyclical inflation. While the former has identical impacts on forecasts disagreement across forecasting horizons, the latter...

The New Keynesian model, augmented with the working capital channel, predicts that a rise in the policy rate causes firms that use more working capital to increase their prices more, and that the pass-through is gradual because of price rigidity. Using a unique dataset on firm-product-level...

Financial markets are eager for any signal of monetary policy from the People's Bank of China (PBC). The importance of effective monetary policy communication will only increase as China continues to liberalize its financial system and open its economy. This paper discusses the country's unique...

The effect that the Great Recession had on monetary policies has led to the profound reorientation of central banks' actions from 2007 to 2013. The purpose of this work is to analyze the monetary policies applied by the main central banks, mainly the European Central Bank, the Federal Reserve...