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How do trade costs affect international trade? This paper offers a new approach. We rely on a flexible gravity equation that predicts variable trade cost elasticities, both across and within country pairs. We apply this framework to the effect of currency unions on international trade. While we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011867116
To study the effect of the euro on international goods trade one typically estimates a panel model for the level of trade. Trade levels increase over time, and we show that this is not fully explained by the included regressors. Because the euro is only present at the end of the sample, this may...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334328
A major economic reason for the introduction of the euro was its supposedly positive effect on intra-EMU trade …. Existing studies examine this suspicion indirectly using non-EMU data and report ambiguous results. We estimate the euro …-effect directly from data that include EMU observations. Using a dynamic panel model for annual bilateral exports, we find that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011327839
European treaty. Moreover, as long as the distance to the core of the EMU countries is still large, real convergence criteria …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010508238
Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? This paper reexamines time series estimates of currency unions on trade from a historical perspective using a dynamic gravity equation and by conducting in-depth case studies of currency union breakups. The early large estimates are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009686546
Empirical research on the gravity model of international trade in the wake of Rose (2000) affirms that currency union formation doubles or triples trade. However, currency unions could also be established precisely because trade among their members was already high. In OLS estimation, this would...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012727925
This paper reconsiders recent empirical evidence found by Andrew Rose that countries adopting a common currency will triple their bilateral trade. We find that this large estimated effect is due to estimation bias arising from missing and/or misspecified time-invariant factors, rather than to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014128477
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012021801
This research note discusses the Euro crisis in Greece in light of the referendum of July the 5th. It lays out the social and political costs of a GREXIT, but also of a continuing austerity policy. It proposes a reform policy fostering growth in Greece and discusses the role of conditionality....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011308548
The financial crisis in Europe has resulted in a new assessment of monetary and financial integration both in Europe and in Asia. Before the current crisis, regional integration in monetary and fiscal affairs including mechanisms to stabilize exchange rates enjoyed a lot of academic and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010367480