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We analyze the role of fiscal policy and intra-European trade in business cycle synchronization in the EU for the period 1995-2008. There is a broad consensus that the relationship between fiscal policy and business cycle comovements and between trade integration and cyclical synchronization are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011392349
Studies often conclude that the proposed Southern African Development Community monetary union would be disastrous and not optimal for all member countries. This is because of the observed low, and sometimes negative business cycle correlation amongst member countries. However, it has been...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011882592
A new resolve for both increased economic integration and monetary and exchange rate cooperation has started to emerge in ASEAN, especially since the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis. According to the optimum currency area theory, the degree of trade integration is one of the most important...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014058071
In contrast to Robert Mundell's Optimum Currency Area theory and his recommendation of forming a monetary union, the economic fundamentals of Euro area member countries have not harmonized. The opposite holds: the Euro core countries - most of all Germany, but also the Netherlands and Finland -...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008695492
The Van Rompuy Report and also additional proposals made by the European Commission outlined steps for a ‘genuine Economic and Monetary Union’. This article explains, assesses and comments on the proposals made. Moreover, it outlines what could be recommendations in order to achieve a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010255185
The Brexit issue has caused much concern regarding the future economic scenario of Europe in particular and the world in general. There are several reasons for Brexit. One of them is that the very nature of Monetary Unions is its rigidity. The 'one size fits all' yardstick won't apply to many...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012956687
The first objective of this paper is to present theoretical approaches to the impact of trade growth (induced by monetary integration) on business cycle synchronization which is an important factor of a country's readiness for a currency union accession. The main conclusion from the first part...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012026961
Since the 1970s the characteristics of international business cycles have changed and deeper economic integration has modified the features of cross-country comovement. We formally test for correlation shifts in measures of real economic activity and economic/financial integration. In Europe we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012714048
The last twenty years have brought a bulk of inconsistent results on the determinants of business cycle synchronization (BCS). Researchers have usually focused their attention on a limited set of possible determinants, not accounting for model uncertainty. For these reasons, Bayesian Model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012123356
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010486924