A demonstration of time series techniques used to forecast quarterly money supply levels. The results indicate that a bivariate model, including an interest rate and M1 predicts M1 better than the univariate model using M1 only, and as well as a 5-variable model which adds prices, output, and...

This paper explores the instability in estimated money demand functions. Using a new data series on credit card usage, we evaluate the role of financial innovations in stabilizing the M1 demand function over three troubling episodes. We find that our measure of financial innovations improves the...

Causal analysis in multiple equation models often revolves around the evaluation of the effects of an exogenous shift in a structural equation. When taking into account the uncertainty implied by the shape of the likelihood, we argue that how normalization is implemented matters for inferential...

The Federal Reserve announces targets for the monetary aggregates that are implicitly conditioned on an assumption about future velocity for each of the monetary aggregates. In this paper we present explicit models of velocity for constructing rigorous tests to determine whether the behavior of...

Causal analysis in multiple equation models often revolves around the evaluation of the effects of an exogenous shift in a structural equation. When taking into account the uncertainty implied by the shape of the likelihood, we argue that how normalization is implemented matters for inferential...

The Bitcoin (BTC) market presents itself as a new unique medium currency, and it is often hailed as the "currency of the future". Simulating the BTC market in the price discovery process presents a unique set of market mechanics. The supply of BTC is determined by the number of miners and...