In this paper, we propose a likelihood ratio and Markov chain based method to evaluate density forecasting. This method can jointly evaluate the unconditional forecasted distribution and dependence of the outcomes. This method is an extension of the widely applied evaluation method for interval...

Frequent problems in applied research that prevent the application of the classical Poisson log-linear model for analyzing count data include overdispersion, an excess of zeros compared to the Poisson distribution, correlated responses, as well as complex predictor structures comprising...

Smooth mixtures, i.e. mixture models with covariate-dependent mixing weights, are very useful flexible models for conditional densities. Previous work shows that using too simple mixture components for modeling heteroscedastic and/or heavy tailed data can give a poor fit, even with a large...